feverish pessimism
(This was brought on by a recent email thread containing this snippet:
"I wonder how wrong we are about the future given this..."
Also brought on by a trip to my local Wal-Mart, which contained a McDonald's inside it.)
In which I become NostraBrian and prognosticate about the next 50 years...
GEOPOLITICS
Full-scale war with the Arab world brought on by a combination of factors including peak oil, religious fundamentalism, and US expansionism. This necessitates multiple fronts against the Saudis -- the monarchy will collapse from US pressure, not Wahhabist elements -- the Iranians, and Syrians.
One effect of full-scale war is that terrorism will come to US shores, and more frequently. Mass casualties will result when a weapon of mass destruction, most likely chemical, is detonated in a major US city.
In stark contrast to the experience of Spain, an enraged US public will demand a second Crusades.
The EU will admit the UK and by this time will begin arming itself against US aggressive gestures.
The countries in Latin America, South America, and the African continent will remain as corrupt kleptocracies (financed by First World debt) and suppliers of raw materials for First World nations.
Water, along with oil, will become the next resource to start wars over.
The UN will be disbanded.
MEDICINE
Gene therapies will become cheaper to mass-produce, and genetic disorders will be cheaper to treat.
AIDS vaccines (and a cure) will arrive, but too late to save about half the African continent. However, poorer nations will ignore existing patents and either openly defy First World patent holders or flood the market with black-market therapies.
There will be a dramatic increase in the incidence of equatorial diseases, mostly brought about by the aftereffects of global warming.
Organ transplants and stem cell research become easier and cheaper with the advent of widely-available cloning technology.
Many cancers will be cured as chemotherapy treatments become cheaper and more potent.
ENVIRONMENT
For the most part, holocaust.
Habitat loss continues unabated over much of the planet -- therefore, the first half of the century sees the extinction of many endangered (and high-profile) species. Many genomes of these species will be mapped, and some habitats will be set aside as wildlife preserves, but cloning zoo animals is just another way of rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.
Global warming brings a more chaotic outlook to the planet; large areas of arable land in areas such as the American Midwest and the Ukraine suffer repeated, devastating drought. As a result, the US has to divert ever greater amounts of water from the Great Lakes, touching off a severe dispute with Canada over rights.
New York City has to build a small dike to protect Manhattan's outer highways from a slight rise in water level. Its sewers aren't as forgiving as the traffic, and its famous heat waves get more punishing.
San Francisco sees wide extremes in its yearly temperature variations.
Most large cities, for that matter, expand into open space, decreasing the amount of available land available for food production.
Florida repeatedly gets hit with Category 5 hurricanes about every 3 years.
ECONOMY AND SOCIETY
Owing to advances in bioinformatics and simple database management, law enforcement agencies are much quicker to respond to threats.
Most citizens willingly cede the last remnants of the 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th Amendments and with them the last of any expectations of privacy.
The 50 years have seen a steady widening of the gap between rich and poor; owing to a relaxing of "right-to-work" laws early in the century, the labor market is almost exclusively made up of low-paying service sector jobs. "Flex-time" options mean that downward pressures on take-home wages still exist, so the practical effect is longer hours at the same job, at a lower rate of pay. What white collar jobs are left have either been automated by AIs or outsourced.
The ratio of US CEO pay to worker pay reaches 600 to 1.
The number of companies controlling media outlets on the planet shrinks from 6 to 3.
Universal health care is passed in some anemic fashion in the teens as a bone (ironically enough) to the HMO lobby, to save HMOs' administrative costs.
The Internet, seen as the last alternative source of information, is closely watched by official agencies -- who get better at spying, tracking identity, and tracking information.
The US adopts a state religion in the early twenties with a creative Supreme Court interpretation of the Establishment and Free Exercise Clauses of the 1st Amendment. An appointee of President Jeb Bush casts the deciding vote.
The first successful active-duty military reality show, first aired in 2005, significantly increases enrollment in the armed services. Compulsory service laws, enacted in the following year, also have an effect in driving recruitment.
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Goddamn it, I really hope I'm wrong.
I really do. Talk about carrying the weight of the world on your shoulders... sigh. The hell of it is I don't think I'm wrong on about half this stuff.
I need a beer. And to stop reading the news. I mean really.